Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | UMBC -125 LAF +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +8 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | LAF -5.4 (+13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -3.4 (+11.4) | 133.5 (+0.5) | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -2.9 (+10.9) | 133.8 (+0.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -5.1 (+13.1) | 136.9 (-2.9) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -5.4 (+13.4) | 138.4 (-4.4) | 25% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 11-23 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-4 | 5-7 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-16 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -14.1 (#355) | 0.1 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.97 (#356) | -1.00 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.58 (#357) | -1.20 (#266) |
| RPI | 0.312 (#311) | 0.403 (#266) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.7% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 25.5% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 28.5 | 29.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.3% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 13.1% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 20.0% | 21.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 8.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 62.4% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.8% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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