Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | COFC +110 CSU -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +10 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | COFC -0.6 (+9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.0 (-30.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -0.5 (+9.5) | 154.3 (-16.3) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -0.5 (+10.5) | 147.8 (-9.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -0.4 (+9.6) | 155.1 (-17.1) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -0.5 (+9.5) | 155.8 (-17.8) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-4 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 6-12 |
| Home | 17-1 | 9-7 |
| Away | 11-2 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.6 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#222) | 6.2 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#121) | 2.20 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#134) | 3.19 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#85) | 0.708 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 54.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 42.1% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 4.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 61.8% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 14.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.1% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 79.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.9% | 13.9% |
Game Analysis
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