Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Under |
| Money | USF -225 APSU +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +2 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | USF -20.4 (-22.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.0 (-2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -10.3 (-12.3) | 122.9 (-0.9) | 81% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -10.7 (-12.7) | 125.3 (-3.3) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -10.3 (-12.3) | 128.3 (-6.3) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USF -11.0 (-13.0) | 129.4 (-7.4) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 15, 2021 | USF 60 – 51 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 3-15 |
| Home | 9-9 | 7-8 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 63.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#171) | -11.4 (#346) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.82 (#325) | -0.53 (#227) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.86 (#303) | -0.73 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#119) | 0.625 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 29.5% |
| 3PT% | 23.5% | 15.6% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 23.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 31.9% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 21.3% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 62.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 59.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.6% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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