Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +9 | 111 | Won |
| Massey | USF -1.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.4 (-11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -1.0 (+8.0) | 129.1 (-18.1) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -4.0 (+5.0) | 129.6 (-18.6) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -1.4 (+7.6) | 129.5 (-18.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -0.9 (+8.1) | 130.2 (-19.2) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2022 | APSU 62 – 60 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 12-17 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 8-10 |
| Home | 6-10 | 6-5 |
| Away | 2-9 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 57.5 | 62.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#270) | -2.3 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.92 (#307) | -0.35 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.18 (#295) | -1.01 (#240) |
| RPI | 0.359 (#344) | 0.495 (#181) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.0% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 25.4% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.3% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 15.4% | 14.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.8% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 62.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.7% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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