Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | SIU -1000 TNST +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +13 | 101 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -14.9 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.6 (-31.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -11.6 (+1.4) | 141.1 (-40.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -11.6 (+1.4) | 137.4 (-36.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -11.3 (+1.7) | 139.0 (-38.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -11.4 (+1.6) | 137.7 (-36.7) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-2 | 13-4 |
| Away | 8-6 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.7 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#63) | 0.3 (#170) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#39) | 0.43 (#132) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#77) | 0.49 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#196) | 0.458 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 44.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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