Betting Lines
| Spread | FOR -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | FOR -275 UIC +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +14 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | FOR -15.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.2 (+10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -12.0 (+2.0) | 137.6 (+6.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -11.6 (+2.4) | 142.1 (+1.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FOR -10.3 (+3.7) | 138.6 (+5.4) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 4-16 |
| Home | 18-2 | 7-8 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#189) | -7.6 (#311) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#131) | -1.61 (#313) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#127) | -2.63 (#310) |
| RPI | 0.609 (#75) | 0.429 (#244) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 37.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 22.0% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.53 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 41.4% |
| TOV% | 25.2% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 41.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.0% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 29.2% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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