Betting Lines
| Spread | GW -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | GW -700 UMES +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GW +5 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | GW -18.5 (-13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (-16.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GW -10.4 (-5.4) | 138.0 (-5.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GW -12.5 (-7.5) | 147.0 (-14.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GW -13.6 (-8.6) | 148.5 (-15.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GW -14.3 (-9.3) | 143.3 (-10.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2023 | GW 69 – 63 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-5 |
| Home | 11-6 | 10-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 68.9 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#127) | -7.6 (#310) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#170) | -1.00 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#170) | -1.66 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#122) | 0.432 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 54.9% | 33.3% |
| 3PT% | 41.3% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 23.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 5.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 64.2% | 41.0% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 15.3% |
| FT Rate | 33.3% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.3% | 59.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 10.9% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.4% | 32.1% |
Game Analysis
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