Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | UCD -275 ARST +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +15 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -12.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (+1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -12.1 (+2.9) | 138.9 (-3.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -9.2 (+5.8) | 135.0 (+0.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -8.2 (+6.8) | 138.0 (-3.0) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 11-8 | 4-14 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-8 |
| Away | 5-9 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 63.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#92) | 0.7 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#167) | -0.43 (#227) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#163) | -0.59 (#212) |
| RPI | 0.383 (#283) | 0.500 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 20.0% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 43.0% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 24.7% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 5.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.3% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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