Betting Lines
| Spread | CAM -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | SELA +250 CAM -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SELA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SELA +1 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | CAM -6.2 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAM -1.9 (+2.9) | 137.6 (+1.4) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SELA -0.6 (+0.4) | 136.7 (+2.3) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAM -2.8 (+3.8) | 137.6 (+1.4) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SELA | CAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 7-8 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 68.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#129) | 8.6 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#138) | -0.31 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#142) | -0.28 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#187) | 0.688 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SELA | CAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 44.6% | 52.6% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.7 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 17.3% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 13.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 42.9% |
Game Analysis
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