Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | SBU -400 BGSU +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +13 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -11.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (+13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -5.5 (+7.5) | 142.2 (+6.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -8.2 (+4.8) | 137.5 (+11.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -5.4 (+7.6) | 140.1 (+8.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -6.1 (+6.9) | 140.6 (+8.4) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-9 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 79.1 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#198) | -4.5 (#265) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.97 (#327) | -0.13 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.71 (#316) | -0.79 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.270 (#342) | 0.461 (#214) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 81.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.5% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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