Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | MONT -500 MRMK +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +11 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | MONT -16.6 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (-33.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -12.2 (-1.2) | 140.6 (-27.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -8.8 (+2.2) | 133.0 (-20.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -11.4 (-0.4) | 144.5 (-31.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -12.3 (-1.3) | 145.7 (-32.7) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONT | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 10-7 | 12-4 |
| Home | 8-4 | 10-6 |
| Away | 6-9 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W11 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 61.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 64.0 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#172) | -7.6 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#144) | -0.85 (#258) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#133) | -1.16 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#126) | 0.531 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONT | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 36.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 22.6% |
| REB / G | 29.7 | 25.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 41.8% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 18.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 30.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 61.9% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 26.0% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 54.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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