Betting Lines
| Spread | STET -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | STET -163 NIA +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STET win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIA +4 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | STET -10.9 (-14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (-10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STET -8.0 (-12.0) | 130.1 (-2.1) | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STET -7.9 (-11.9) | 135.4 (-7.4) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STET -6.5 (-10.5) | 136.7 (-8.7) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STET -6.6 (-10.6) | 135.7 (-7.7) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STET | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 9-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 7-9 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 66.4 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#52) | -2.9 (#237) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.97 (#31) | 0.12 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.53 (#53) | -0.10 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#208) | 0.475 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STET | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 23.8% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 2.24 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 11.4% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 14.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 9.5% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 64.7% | 64.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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