Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | HOW +180 BUF -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +4 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | BUF -1.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.0 (-40.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -1.3 (+5.3) | 151.2 (-29.2) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -2.3 (+6.3) | 145.1 (-23.1) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -2.0 (+6.0) | 153.3 (-31.3) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -1.5 (+5.5) | 153.7 (-31.7) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-8 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 79.0 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#284) | -4.8 (#272) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.66 (#351) | -0.49 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.08 (#350) | -1.05 (#252) |
| RPI | 0.332 (#314) | 0.580 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 25.3% |
| REB / G | 27.2 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 23.3% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 20.7% |
| FT Rate | 13.5% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 66.7% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 38.5% |
Game Analysis
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