Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | USC -1200 MSM +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +9 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | USC -3.2 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.1 (+24.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -5.6 (+3.4) | 139.3 (+17.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -4.6 (+4.4) | 140.9 (+16.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -4.0 (+5.0) | 136.9 (+20.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -4.9 (+4.1) | 136.8 (+20.2) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 8-12 |
| Home | 15-2 | 5-9 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 63.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 67.9 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#250) | 1.4 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.57 (#309) | -0.71 (#246) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.82 (#324) | -1.08 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.317 (#319) | 0.468 (#207) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 37.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 17.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 44.1% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 23.7% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 37.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.4% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 23.3% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 60.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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