Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | ND -800 LIP +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +1 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | ND -17.2 (-16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (-22.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -15.3 (-14.3) | 150.8 (-19.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -15.4 (-14.4) | 141.4 (-10.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -11.8 (-10.8) | 150.9 (-19.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -13.9 (-12.9) | 152.4 (-21.4) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-8 | 13-2 |
| Away | 0-10 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#121) | -6.0 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.73 (#49) | -0.30 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#47) | -0.68 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.694 (#32) | 0.349 (#303) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.2% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.2% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 12.3% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 20.6% |
| FT Rate | 37.2% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 10.6% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.0% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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