Betting Lines
| Spread | SIUE -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | SIUE +100 FDU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIUE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIUE +1 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | FDU -2.2 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.6 (-10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FDU -2.5 (+3.5) | 157.7 (-0.7) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FDU -2.1 (+3.1) | 155.1 (+1.9) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FDU -2.8 (+3.8) | 156.8 (+0.2) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FDU -2.5 (+3.5) | 157.6 (-0.6) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIUE | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 21-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-6 |
| Home | 9-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-8 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#270) | -2.4 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#266) | -0.09 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#270) | -0.25 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.318 (#318) | 0.396 (#273) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIUE | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 22.2% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 17.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.43 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 23.4% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 39.3% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.0% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 23.3% |
| DRB% | 65.7% | 62.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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