Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | IDST -150 DEN +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +1 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | IDST -18.4 (-19.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.9 (+5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -8.8 (-9.8) | 136.7 (+2.3) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -10.4 (-11.4) | 135.6 (+3.4) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -11.3 (-12.3) | 133.3 (+5.7) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -10.1 (-11.1) | 136.8 (+2.2) | 80% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | IDST 93 – 79 DEN |
| Jan 4, 2024 | DEN 95 – 82 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 7-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-12 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#114) | -6.7 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.87 (#261) | -1.41 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#255) | -2.11 (#291) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#256) | 0.304 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.3% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 5.5 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.61 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.4% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 14.9% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 14.2% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.9% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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