Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | IDST -410 DEN +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +14 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | IDST -13.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.9 (+23.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -11.4 (+2.6) | 140.5 (+31.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -11.9 (+2.1) | 143.9 (+28.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -12.1 (+1.9) | 144.7 (+27.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -10.6 (+3.4) | 141.9 (+30.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2024 | DEN 95 – 82 IDST |
| Nov 19, 2022 | DEN 70 – 69 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-8 |
| Home | 8-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-12 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 84.0 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#106) | -3.3 (#216) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#159) | 0.43 (#151) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#145) | -0.12 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#158) | 0.519 (#152) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 29.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 60.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 62.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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