Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | DEN -250 IDST +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +13 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | DEN -13.0 (+0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.7 (+19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -9.1 (+3.9) | 147.6 (+29.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -10.7 (+2.3) | 149.8 (+27.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -11.0 (+2.0) | 152.7 (+24.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -11.7 (+1.3) | 150.6 (+26.4) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | IDST 93 – 79 DEN |
| Nov 19, 2022 | DEN 70 – 69 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 14-20 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.1 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#129) | -5.9 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#181) | -2.10 (#324) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.00 (#174) | -2.24 (#310) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#196) | 0.387 (#341) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 30.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 12.7% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.4% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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