Betting Lines
| Spread | SLU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | MD +115 SLU -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +28 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | MD -3.1 (+24.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (+21.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -1.9 (+26.1) | 141.2 (+20.8) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -2.1 (+25.9) | 142.7 (+19.3) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -2.1 (+25.9) | 140.7 (+21.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -1.4 (+26.6) | 138.8 (+23.2) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | SLU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 16-1 | 15-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.5 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#29) | 6.9 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#39) | 2.11 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.56 (#51) | 3.68 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.729 (#22) | 0.766 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | SLU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 25.4% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 43.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 36.6% | 42.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 11.7% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.7% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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