Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | NAU +350 UCSB -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +9 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | NAU -9.7 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (-21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAU -4.4 (+4.6) | 137.9 (-20.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAU -4.3 (+4.7) | 137.5 (-20.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAU -2.7 (+6.3) | 132.7 (-15.7) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2023 | UCSB 70 – 59 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-23 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 15-5 |
| Home | 6-8 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-13 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#150) | 0.3 (#174) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#270) | 0.69 (#118) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#249) | 0.87 (#122) |
| RPI | 0.356 (#301) | 0.500 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.0% | 36.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 39.3% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 12.9% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 16.3% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.0% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 25.4% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 89.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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