Funky Claude was running in and out / pulling kids out the ground "Smoke On the Water" - Deep Purple
J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome · November 19, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread UCSB -8.5 Home covered
O/U 136.5 Under
Money NAU +350 / UCSB -400
Model Predictions
Spread Total NAU win
Actual NAU +9 117 Won
Massey NAU -9.7 (-0.7) — —
Massey Totals — 138.9 (-21.9) —
Bradley-Terry — — 49% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 56% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML NAU -4.4 (+4.6) 137.9 (-20.9) 64% ✓
Baseline ML NAU -4.3 (+4.7) 137.5 (-20.5) 65% ✓
Baseline Plus ML NAU -2.7 (+6.3) 132.7 (-15.7) 69% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 30, 2023 UCSB 70 – 59 NAU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings NAU UCSB
Overall 12-23 27-8
Conference 5-13 15-5
Home 6-8 12-3
Away 3-13 10-4
Neutral 3-2 5-1
Last 5 0-3 1-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 72.5 71.3
Avg Pts Against 76.2 66.0
Massey 1.6 (#150) 0.3 (#174)
Bradley-Terry -1.01 (#270) 0.69 (#118)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.02 (#249) 0.87 (#122)
RPI 0.356 (#301) 0.500 (#175)
Shooting & Four Factors NAU UCSB
FG% 37.0% 36.1%
3PT% 30.2% 25.0%
REB / G 33.7 39.0
OREB / G 11.3 14.0
AST / TO 1.26 1.50
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 44.0% 39.3%
TOV% 16.7% 12.9%
ORB% 27.9% 35.0%
FT Rate 16.3% 21.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 57.0% 50.0%
Opp TOV% 18.1% 25.4%
DRB% 67.7% 89.3%
Opp FT Rate 25.5% 28.6%

Game Analysis

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