Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | UCSB -900 NAU +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +11 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -9.6 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (-19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -7.5 (+3.5) | 144.5 (-15.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -6.0 (+5.0) | 145.2 (-16.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -6.1 (+4.9) | 146.0 (-17.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -6.7 (+4.3) | 144.6 (-15.6) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2022 | NAU 63 – 54 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-7 | 7-5 |
| Away | 6-7 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 76.6 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#173) | -3.6 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#169) | 0.96 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#198) | 1.17 (#117) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#164) | 0.595 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.5% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 25.8% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.1% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 15.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.1% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 32.6% |
Game Analysis
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