We need the funk. "Give Up the Funk" - Parliament
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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41–19 on winners spread MAE 9.6 60 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Stephen F. Austin @ South Dakota State +8.1 145.5 78% 93–82 ✗
Princeton @ Marist -6.6 144.1 26% 62–55 ✓
Bryant @ Florida International -4.8 157.3 31% 91–85 ✓
Coppin State @ Marshall +15.9 160.2 87% 67–86 ✓
St. Thomas @ Merrimack -7.8 136.3 21% 72–61 ✓
Kennesaw State @ App State +2.6 142.3 51% 71–67 ✗
The Citadel @ Butler +18.4 145.8 88% 42–89 ✓
Stonehill @ Holy Cross -3.0 154.4 37% 81–79 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ VMI -3.9 144.7 33% 93–67 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Valparaiso +11.7 143.7 87% 64–68 ✓
Seattle U @ Portland +9.8 148.2 77% 80–68 ✗
Georgia Southern @ Houston Christian -0.3 133.7 45% 84–77 ✓
UC Irvine @ Pepperdine +3.9 139.3 55% 55–64 ✓
Hofstra @ Saint Mary's +9.1 144.0 73% 48–76 ✓
Nicholls @ BYU +13.7 147.8 87% 73–87 ✓
Troy @ Montana +2.3 142.8 60% 73–62 ✗
Portland State @ Oregon State +4.7 142.3 68% 79–66 ✗
Murray State @ Tulsa +3.3 151.5 64% 77–60 ✗
Furman @ South Carolina -7.8 143.0 24% 79–60 ✓
James Madison @ North Carolina -4.1 154.9 34% 64–80 ✗
Lindenwood @ Western Carolina +4.2 137.3 70% 88–90 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Campbell +1.6 138.7 54% 61–85 ✓
La Salle @ Georgetown -1.4 147.1 43% 62–69 ✗
Boston University @ New Hampshire +3.9 150.7 65% 64–57 ✗
East Texas A&M @ Eastern Kentucky +1.5 136.8 60% 75–61 ✗
Western Michigan @ Georgia Southern -2.6 143.6 40% 57–63 ✗
Central Connecticut @ UMBC +2.6 146.7 56% 76–78 ✓
Miami @ Maryland +5.1 136.3 72% 70–88 ✓
Massachusetts @ Charlotte +5.1 129.2 72% 60–54 ✗
Old Dominion @ Davidson -2.8 149.0 40% 61–66 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Longwood +9.4 155.2 81% 61–56 ✗
Montana State @ North Dakota -2.1 134.0 37% 81–71 ✓
Radford @ Army -4.4 148.9 31% 90–75 ✓
Youngstown State @ Navy +4.4 147.7 65% 67–80 ✓
Siena @ Harvard +5.3 149.6 70% 59–69 ✓
Alabama State @ Pittsburgh +10.5 146.7 84% 54–73 ✓
Lamar @ McNeese -5.0 149.3 29% 57–66 ✗
SE Louisiana @ App State +1.7 140.6 50% 74–83 ✓
Wake Forest @ Loyola Marymount +0.4 145.3 47% 75–77 ✓
Illinois @ Virginia -1.3 147.0 43% 61–70 ✗
Texas Southern @ Samford +20.1 142.7 90% 63–78 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ UT Martin -0.3 138.9 47% 79–80 ✗
Wagner @ Seton Hall +7.6 134.7 71% 44–82 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Georgia State +0.1 144.6 42% 68–74 ✓
Providence @ Saint Louis +0.9 154.4 58% 73–76 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Charleston +1.7 155.7 52% 75–77 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Nebraska +7.1 134.7 76% 58–82 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Tennessee Tech -2.8 145.6 38% 62–69 ✗
Texas A&M @ Loyola Chicago -2.2 147.2 41% 67–51 ✓
DePaul @ Oklahoma State +0.7 137.0 51% 78–82 ✓
VMI @ Fairleigh Dickinson +2.6 145.4 61% 89–93 ✓
Delaware State @ UConn +21.9 136.7 91% 60–95 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Wofford +9.5 145.4 81% 64–78 ✓
VCU @ Memphis +9.5 142.0 80% 47–62 ✓
Queens University @ Morgan State -2.2 142.8 39% 74–64 ✓
UCLA @ Baylor -0.7 155.2 46% 75–80 ✗
Miami (OH) @ Indiana +17.0 153.5 87% 56–86 ✓
Drake @ Wyoming -3.9 144.1 30% 61–56 ✓
Penn State @ Colorado State -1.4 137.6 45% 68–56 ✓
Milwaukee @ Iowa State +24.4 137.5 91% 53–68 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.