Betting Lines
| Spread | EKU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | EKU -275 ETAM +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETAM +14 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | EKU -2.0 (-16.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EKU -1.3 (-15.3) | 137.2 (-1.2) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETAM -0.2 (-13.8) | 134.0 (+2.0) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EKU -1.5 (-15.5) | 136.8 (-0.8) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | EKU -1.7 (-15.7) | 135.6 (+0.4) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EKU | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 5-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#210) | -3.7 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#65) | -1.05 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.88 (#86) | -1.35 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.632 (#57) | 0.359 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EKU | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 13.7% | 14.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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