Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | BAY -188 UCLA +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +5 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -0.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCLA -1.8 (+6.8) | 155.4 (-0.4) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCLA -0.9 (+5.9) | 153.6 (+1.4) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCLA -0.7 (+5.7) | 155.2 (-0.2) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -1.1 (+6.1) | 154.4 (+0.6) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 31-6 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 18-2 |
| Home | 14-3 | 17-0 |
| Away | 5-5 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 60.7 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#15) | 12.8 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#142) | 1.34 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#138) | 2.28 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#116) | 0.668 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.6% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 42.7% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.83 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.3% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 40.6% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 12.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.5% | 24.9% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.9% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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