Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | LMU +230 WAKE -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LMU +2 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | LMU -2.3 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (+4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -0.6 (+2.6) | 147.9 (+4.1) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -1.7 (+3.7) | 145.1 (+6.9) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LMU -0.4 (+1.6) | 145.3 (+6.7) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LMU -0.2 (+1.8) | 145.8 (+6.2) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-12 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 10-10 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 73.8 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#99) | 1.9 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#185) | 2.22 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#151) | 3.52 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#100) | 0.656 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 14.5% | 32.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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