Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | GAST +110 UNCA -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +6 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -2.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (-10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -1.0 (+7.0) | 146.8 (-4.8) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -1.6 (+7.6) | 145.3 (-3.3) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -0.1 (+5.9) | 144.6 (-2.6) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -1.1 (+7.1) | 144.8 (-2.8) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 16-2 |
| Home | 10-9 | 13-0 |
| Away | 0-11 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.1 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 69.8 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#284) | 3.9 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#281) | 1.51 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#250) | 2.32 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#227) | 0.560 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 23.6% | 41.8% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 14.4% |
Game Analysis
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