Betting Lines
| Spread | HARV -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | HARV -163 SIE +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HARV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HARV +10 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | HARV -8.1 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.5 (-25.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HARV -5.4 (+4.6) | 150.7 (-22.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HARV -4.4 (+5.6) | 144.0 (-16.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HARV -5.3 (+4.7) | 149.6 (-21.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HARV -5.6 (+4.4) | 151.7 (-23.7) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 23, 2021 | SIE 72 – 69 HARV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HARV | SIE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-14 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 5-7 | 8-5 |
| Away | 8-6 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#192) | -1.0 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#129) | -1.74 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#178) | -3.17 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#187) | 0.293 (#338) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HARV | SIE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 49.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 47.5% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 58.2% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 79.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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