Betting Lines
| Spread | HARV -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | SIE +180 HARV -210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIE +3 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | HARV -14.5 (+17.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (-4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HARV -6.6 (+9.6) | 144.0 (-3.0) | 25% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HARV -6.5 (+9.5) | 140.4 (+0.6) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HARV -8.4 (+11.4) | 144.4 (-3.4) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HARV -8.0 (+11.0) | 146.1 (-5.1) | 23% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 20, 2022 | HARV 69 – 59 SIE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIE | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-14 | 13-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 5-9 |
| Home | 8-5 | 9-6 |
| Away | 7-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.3 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 70.0 |
| Massey | -17.5 (#355) | 4.6 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.93 (#349) | 0.38 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.20 (#349) | 0.31 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.383 (#303) | 0.507 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIE | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.7% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.4% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 23.9% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 13.1% | 38.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.4% | 42.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 35.3% |
Game Analysis
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