Betting Lines
| Spread | WOF -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | WOF -500 NCAT +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WOF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WOF +14 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | WOF -14.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WOF -11.7 (+2.3) | 144.4 (-2.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WOF -12.7 (+1.3) | 143.3 (-1.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WOF -9.5 (+4.5) | 145.4 (-3.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WOF -11.0 (+3.0) | 145.8 (-3.8) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WOF | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#196) | -7.6 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#201) | -2.07 (#328) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#212) | -2.63 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.404 (#275) | 0.390 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WOF | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.3% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.6% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 12.7% | 27.4% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 32.0% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 13.0% |
| DRB% | 65.5% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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