Betting Lines
| Spread | YSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | NAVY +163 YSU -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +13 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -3.9 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -5.1 (+7.9) | 145.6 (+1.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -4.4 (+8.6) | 147.7 (-0.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -4.0 (+9.0) | 149.7 (-2.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -3.6 (+9.4) | 148.8 (-1.8) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2023 | YSU 75 – 65 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | YSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 15-5 |
| Home | 9-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 9-7 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#139) | 5.9 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#84) | 1.25 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#113) | 2.03 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#126) | 0.563 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | YSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 51.4% |
| 3PT% | 41.2% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 14.1% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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