Betting Lines
| Spread | TA&M -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | LUC +210 TA&M -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TA&M +16 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | TA&M -2.9 (-13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (-32.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TA&M -3.2 (-12.8) | 149.8 (-31.8) | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TA&M -2.9 (-13.1) | 145.9 (-27.9) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TA&M -2.2 (-13.8) | 147.2 (-29.2) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TA&M -2.1 (-13.9) | 149.6 (-31.6) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 15-3 |
| Home | 6-8 | 15-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 3-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 66.5 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#295) | -3.6 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#235) | -0.94 (#264) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#244) | -1.06 (#246) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#261) | 0.400 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 23.4% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 26.9% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 36.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 31.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.2% | 35.0% |
Game Analysis
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