Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | SDST -275 SFA +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +11 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | SDST -12.4 (-23.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.2 (+24.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -7.6 (-18.6) | 144.6 (+30.4) | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -4.7 (-15.7) | 145.7 (+29.3) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -8.1 (-19.1) | 145.5 (+29.5) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -8.5 (-19.5) | 145.3 (+29.7) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 14, 2021 | SDST 83 – 71 SFA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-2 | 12-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#89) | 0.1 (#173) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#52) | -0.30 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.86 (#46) | -0.13 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.657 (#42) | 0.431 (#251) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 26.2% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 4.2 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.57 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 25.0% | 24.3% |
| ORB% | 14.0% | 42.3% |
| FT Rate | 35.6% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 27.2% |
| DRB% | 79.0% | 60.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.6% | 33.7% |
Game Analysis
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