We are like Greeks. We are like Romans. / Centaurs and monkeys just cluster 'round us "Nemesis" - Shriekback
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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25–8 on winners spread MAE 9.0 33 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Colorado @ Boise State -4.9 139.0 27% 55–68 ✗
Kentucky @ Gonzaga +5.5 155.7 69% 72–88 ✓
Ohio @ Michigan +8.8 154.1 80% 66–70 ✓
Jackson State @ Little Rock +0.9 149.9 51% 91–94 ✓
Green Bay @ Utah Valley +6.2 131.8 75% 56–79 ✓
Santa Clara @ UCF +2.2 139.6 54% 50–57 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Missouri +22.5 153.2 91% 62–83 ✓
Tarleton State @ Boston College -3.2 139.9 37% 70–54 ✓
Houston @ Oregon -2.4 130.1 32% 66–56 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Cal Poly -1.5 133.3 41% 73–68 ✓
Illinois State @ LSU +4.1 136.2 70% 61–77 ✓
Kansas City @ Toledo +6.8 147.8 77% 83–71 ✗
Bryant @ Detroit Mercy -4.2 150.2 30% 98–88 ✓
Austin Peay @ UAlbany +2.0 135.3 60% 74–59 ✗
Northern Iowa @ San Francisco +4.0 138.8 70% 69–75 ✓
Buffalo @ George Mason +2.8 140.1 60% 82–74 ✗
Akron @ Western Kentucky +4.6 138.3 73% 72–53 ✗
Bucknell @ Presbyterian -8.3 136.3 21% 66–65 ✓
Texas Tech @ Creighton +2.5 132.2 62% 65–76 ✓
Indiana State @ East Carolina -5.8 149.6 28% 79–75 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Wichita State -2.3 121.2 39% 43–55 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ Tennessee State +0.8 129.7 52% 73–74 ✓
Howard @ Belmont +4.6 145.9 69% 73–96 ✓
UIC @ Stonehill +3.4 146.1 64% 77–71 ✗
Nevada @ Tulane -6.1 136.7 26% 75–66 ✓
Louisville @ Arkansas +11.6 126.2 84% 54–80 ✓
UT Arlington @ Drexel +2.4 127.6 58% 38–59 ✓
Central Michigan @ High Point +3.7 152.8 66% 67–68 ✓
Wyoming @ Boston College +2.4 134.6 60% 48–59 ✓
Western Illinois @ UT Rio Grande Valley +0.8 149.2 52% 77–78 ✓
UAB @ South Florida -9.2 145.6 20% 80–65 ✓
Utah @ Georgia Tech -2.1 130.4 47% 68–64 ✓
Mercer @ Florida State -0.3 145.5 45% 72–81 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.