Betting Lines
| Spread | LR -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | LR -125 JKST +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +3 | 185 | Won |
| Massey | LR -2.2 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.7 (+29.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -0.2 (+2.8) | 151.7 (+33.3) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JKST -0.2 (+3.2) | 152.5 (+32.5) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -0.9 (+2.1) | 149.9 (+35.1) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LR -2.5 (+0.5) | 150.8 (+34.2) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-5 | 7-2 |
| Away | 2-16 | 6-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.9 | 73.6 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#297) | -1.5 (#198) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.58 (#311) | -1.46 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.58 (#310) | -2.04 (#282) |
| RPI | 0.297 (#342) | 0.146 (#363) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 27.6% | 18.9% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 41.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 42.8% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 15.5% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.6% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 60.0% | 85.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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