Betting Lines
| Spread | CP -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | CP -125 MSM +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +5 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | MSM -2.8 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.2 (+11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -0.3 (-4.7) | 134.9 (+6.1) | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -4.3 (-0.7) | 135.9 (+5.1) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -1.5 (-3.5) | 133.3 (+7.7) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -0.4 (-4.6) | 134.8 (+6.2) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CP | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-25 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 1-18 | 8-12 |
| Home | 6-11 | 5-9 |
| Away | 1-13 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 59.4 | 63.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 67.9 |
| Massey | -10.3 (#336) | 0.2 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.87 (#252) | -1.51 (#305) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#240) | -2.65 (#314) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#258) | 0.417 (#266) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CP | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 32.6% | 36.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 4.5 | 16.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.15 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 37.6% | 43.8% |
| TOV% | 29.0% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 13.0% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 61.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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