Betting Lines
| Spread | WKU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | WKU -138 AKR +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +19 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | WKU -8.5 (-27.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (-7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WKU -3.6 (-22.6) | 136.1 (-11.1) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WKU -1.5 (-20.5) | 136.7 (-11.7) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WKU -4.6 (-23.6) | 138.3 (-13.3) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WKU | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 13-5 |
| Home | 9-5 | 15-1 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#97) | -4.0 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.02 (#13) | 0.50 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.81 (#26) | 0.17 (#170) |
| RPI | 0.632 (#50) | 0.580 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WKU | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 38.0% |
| 3PT% | 58.8% | 27.7% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 5.0 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 14.7% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 14.3% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.9% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.9% | 15.2% |
Game Analysis
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