Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -4000 KC +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KC +12 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -8.2 (-20.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (+5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -6.7 (-18.7) | 151.6 (+2.4) | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -8.8 (-20.8) | 150.2 (+3.8) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -6.8 (-18.8) | 147.8 (+6.2) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -6.5 (-18.5) | 148.2 (+5.8) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 12, 2020 | TOL 64 – 57 KC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-1 | 6-8 |
| Away | 10-4 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.9 | 63.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#108) | -4.4 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#68) | -0.78 (#246) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#75) | -0.95 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.681 (#29) | 0.487 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | KC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.6% | 34.5% |
| 3PT% | 45.0% | 18.0% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 0.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.1% | 37.7% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 28.5% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 63.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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