Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | TOL -700 KC +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +7 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -19.9 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.2 (-14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -15.2 (-8.2) | 135.5 (-14.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -13.1 (-6.1) | 134.8 (-13.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -14.0 (-7.0) | 139.4 (-18.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -15.6 (-8.6) | 139.4 (-18.4) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 21, 2022 | KC 83 – 71 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-9 | 11-13 |
| Conference | 15-4 | 7-7 |
| Home | 12-1 | 8-3 |
| Away | 7-5 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.1 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 64.6 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#83) | -9.2 (#272) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#166) | -3.07 (#301) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#180) | -4.82 (#304) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#153) | 0.283 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | KC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 40.4% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 23.9% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 57.3% |
Game Analysis
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