Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | UALB +140 APSU -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UALB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +15 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | UALB -5.5 (-20.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.0 (-0.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UALB -1.2 (-16.2) | 132.2 (+0.8) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UALB -2.8 (-17.8) | 132.2 (+0.8) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UALB -2.0 (-17.0) | 135.3 (-2.3) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UALB -1.4 (-16.4) | 137.4 (-4.4) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UALB | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 3-13 | 3-15 |
| Home | 5-6 | 7-8 |
| Away | 2-16 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.4 | 63.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#216) | -7.5 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.93 (#323) | 0.34 (#151) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.49 (#335) | 0.45 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.380 (#294) | 0.589 (#87) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UALB | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 32.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 27.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 37.9% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.9% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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