Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | ARK -1200 LOU +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +26 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -16.3 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 113.4 (+20.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -15.6 (+10.4) | 125.6 (+8.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -13.8 (+12.2) | 127.9 (+6.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -15.0 (+11.0) | 125.7 (+8.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -16.3 (+9.7) | 127.0 (+7.0) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2025 | ARK 89 – 80 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 2-18 |
| Home | 14-3 | 4-13 |
| Away | 2-8 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#67) | -9.1 (#328) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#79) | -4.13 (#363) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.92 (#84) | -4.79 (#353) |
| RPI | 0.667 (#32) | 0.244 (#357) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 27.1% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 24.5% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.2% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.1% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 80.2% | 81.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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