Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Over |
| Money | ARK +110 LOU -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +9 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -3.3 (+12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.6 (+0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -0.2 (+9.2) | 164.8 (+4.2) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -1.0 (+8.0) | 157.4 (+11.6) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -0.5 (+8.5) | 158.2 (+10.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -1.1 (+7.9) | 166.8 (+2.2) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 21, 2022 | ARK 80 – 54 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 17-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.2 | 84.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.0 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 13.6 (#33) | 22.0 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.65 (#69) | 2.56 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#84) | 3.75 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#79) | 0.591 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 46.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.84 | 1.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 58.3% |
| TOV% | 13.1% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 37.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 31.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 42.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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