Betting Lines
| Spread | UIC -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | STO +200 UIC -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIC +6 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | STO -4.7 (-10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (-1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STO -1.7 (-7.7) | 146.9 (+1.1) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STO -2.6 (-8.6) | 143.8 (+4.2) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STO -3.4 (-9.4) | 146.1 (+1.9) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STO -3.2 (-9.2) | 147.6 (+0.4) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STO | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 4-16 |
| Home | 7-4 | 7-8 |
| Away | 6-12 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#285) | -10.7 (#343) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#159) | -2.98 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#165) | -5.20 (#357) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#191) | 0.329 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STO | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 25.9% |
| REB / G | 27.2 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 5.8 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 19.9% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 32.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.7% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 25.7% |
| DRB% | 62.9% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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