Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | DREX -138 UTA +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DREX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +21 | 97 | Won |
| Massey | DREX -2.3 (+18.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.1 (-21.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -3.3 (+17.7) | 128.6 (-31.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -2.5 (+18.5) | 128.6 (-31.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -2.4 (+18.6) | 127.6 (-30.6) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -2.8 (+18.2) | 128.2 (-31.2) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DREX | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 12-3 | 6-8 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 62.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 70.0 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#236) | -5.6 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#261) | -1.52 (#307) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#219) | -1.82 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.368 (#308) | 0.498 (#179) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DREX | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 27.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.3% | 16.7% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 30.0% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 34.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.7% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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