Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | TNST -175 CSUN +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +1 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | CSUN -1.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 117.3 (+29.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -1.8 (-0.8) | 131.5 (+15.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -0.9 (+0.1) | 129.4 (+17.6) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -0.8 (+0.2) | 129.7 (+17.3) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -0.8 (+0.2) | 128.5 (+18.5) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 4-16 |
| Home | 13-4 | 7-8 |
| Away | 4-8 | 0-14 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 61.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#205) | -0.1 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#178) | -1.32 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#194) | -2.57 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.387 (#290) | 0.327 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 21.1% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 41.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 41.0% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 23.0% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 14.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.1% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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