Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | ECU +300 INST -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +4 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -10.8 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (+4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -4.6 (+0.6) | 151.4 (+2.6) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -4.5 (+0.5) | 152.0 (+2.0) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -5.8 (+1.8) | 149.6 (+4.4) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -5.3 (+1.3) | 149.9 (+4.1) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 2-9 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#233) | 7.7 (#58) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#102) | 1.35 (#77) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#110) | 2.03 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#182) | 0.608 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 51.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 60.3% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 19.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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