Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | GMU -250 BUF +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +8 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | GMU -4.1 (-12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (+17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -2.4 (-10.4) | 140.1 (+15.9) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -2.5 (-10.5) | 140.0 (+16.0) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -2.8 (-10.8) | 140.1 (+15.9) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -2.4 (-10.4) | 141.0 (+15.0) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 79.0 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#221) | -6.4 (#289) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#291) | -1.58 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.20 (#290) | -3.03 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#214) | 0.471 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 29.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 15.9% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 37.5% |
Game Analysis
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