Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | UCF -138 SCU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +7 | 107 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -3.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (-29.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -3.4 (+3.6) | 144.7 (-37.7) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -2.0 (+5.0) | 140.5 (-33.5) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -2.2 (+4.8) | 139.6 (-32.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -1.8 (+5.2) | 140.6 (-33.6) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | SCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-5 |
| Home | 11-6 | 14-4 |
| Away | 5-7 | 6-3 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 73.8 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#104) | 0.9 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#172) | 1.91 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#155) | 2.78 (#54) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#185) | 0.673 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | SCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 44.5 |
| OREB / G | 15.8 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 40.1% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 16.3% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.1% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.8% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 83.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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