Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | FSU -300 MER +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +9 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -0.7 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -0.3 (+9.3) | 147.6 (+5.4) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -0.6 (+9.6) | 143.3 (+9.7) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -0.3 (+9.3) | 145.5 (+7.5) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MER -0.0 (+9.0) | 147.5 (+5.5) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 6-12 |
| Home | 5-11 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#291) | 0.2 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.19 (#353) | -0.51 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.36 (#347) | 0.08 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.401 (#276) | 0.498 (#180) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 50.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 58.3% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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