Betting Lines
| Spread | TULN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | TULN -150 NEV +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TULN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +9 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | NEV -8.6 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.3 (+6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -5.9 (-3.1) | 139.7 (+1.3) | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -5.6 (-3.4) | 141.2 (-0.2) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -6.1 (-2.9) | 136.7 (+4.3) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -5.4 (-3.6) | 135.2 (+5.8) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TULN | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-11 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-3 | 14-1 |
| Away | 5-4 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#154) | 9.8 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#121) | 2.24 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#124) | 3.67 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#106) | 0.681 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TULN | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.5% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.89 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.0% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 33.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.1% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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